Good time to be a cowboy

The United States national cattle herd may never return to where it was, such has been the extent of the drought-driven liquidation this cycle combined with other factors at play, experienced cattlemen say.

Given how resilient US beef consumer demand has proven as the higher retail prices have set in, that could mean ongoing better returns for both American ranchers and overseas suppliers like Australia who are filling their beef shortage gap.

Montana rancher Darrell Stevenson, whose multi-generation family seedstock operation Down T at Sulphur Springs boasts America's longest established annual bull sale, says good, fertile grasslands has been lost to beef production for good in this particular US herd liquidation.

"It may be due to retirement and aging out, urban sprawl or even loss to recreation - these are all very real scenarios and a looming concern for creating opportunity for the next generation," Mr Stevenson said.

"Our national cow herd inventory has dropped to historic lows. A lot of factors are in play, but it is largely due to continuing regional drought.

"Consumer acceptance is continuing to withstand our tightened supply and increasing beef prices.

"That means we are truly experiencing the best of times right now."

US cattle prices have hit all-time highs this year and are expected to remain elevated for years on the back of the beef shortage.

But there are plenty of challenges, not-the-least being the unknown factor of just how badly beef will be caught up in the global trade war unfolding courtesy of US President Donald Trump's tariff agenda.

Mr Stevenson feels that from a global trade perspective, Trump's tariffs would not be helpful to the US beef industry at all.

"Our two largest trade partners for beef are Mexico and Canada. Tariffs would greatly disrupt the live cattle and beef movement further pressuring our already tight supply," he said.

The Down T

The Down T markets its Angus genetics with the operation's headquarter family business Stevenson Angus Ranch, hosting two production sales a year.

Between those two events and private treaty, around 600 bulls and 300 females are sold annually.

They have customers who have been returning for four decades. The majority of bulls stay within the state of Montana but they do go to every beef-producing state in the US.

"We are primarily concerned with servicing the commercial production market," Mr Stevenson said.

The Down T is in a big mountain valley, typical of the majestic sceneries of Montana with the south fork of the Smith River flowing through it.

It is considered higher altitude country. Growing seasons are short with normally less than 100 days of growing season and rainfall is limited. Winters are long, with up to six months of snow cover.

The Stevensons say the rise of Angus in their country has been nothing short of phenomenal.

"In 1995, around 35 per cent of all harvested cattle in the USA were black hided. In 2024, that figure reached 72pc. They aren't all Angus, but certainly Angus is a strong influence," Mr Stevenson said.

What has driven that?

"First and foremost, the overwhelming credit would be driven by the demand for Certified Angus Beef," Mr Stevenson said.

"However, it isn't just a trend for feedlot performance and carcass quality. The fundamental maternal function of the Angus cow has proven to not only survive but thrive in every environment in the USA."

CAB had forever shifted consumer habits, Mr Steveneson believes.

"They can now expect a high quality dining experience every time they see the logo. And they are willing to pay for that," he said.

"That has not always been the case for the general beef industry."

More from less

From a production standpoint, it's all about inventory.

"If you are surrounded with cattle, you're sitting in an enviable position," Mr Stevenson said.

"The fact is that we are harvesting less cattle with an ever-tightening supply and we are still making the same amount of beef.

"We are literally harvesting more with less. What an amazing testament to our modern-day Angus genetics that is.

"Our marketplace is breaking all-time historic highs every month with every class of cattle in every segment. It's a good time to be a cowboy."

Optimum balance has always been preached at the Down T.

"Today that sounds cliche, but it truly is the foundation to our breeding program," Mr Stevenson said.

"I believe in a disciplined stockmanship approach to evaluating and managing cattle however I'm also a strong advocate for utilising every measurement and selection tool possible.

"I'm firstly concerned with the proper fundamental traits of fertility, soundness and building a better cow.

"Beyond those typical Angus characteristics, we have a lot of options today for improving phenotype, muscle density, overall performance and carcass traits.

"Our success is only as good as our customer's success and as such their feedback is critical for long-term breeding objectives."

Never-ending challenges

Still, breeders have their work cut out for them, Mr Stevenson believes.

"There is a never-ending challenge to improve feed efficiency, modernise grading technology and we are undergoing a re-evaluation of the USDA red meat yield formula," he said.

Mr Stevenson and his wife, Sara, will be attending the Angus World Forum in Australia.

"My daughter Claire was selected for Team USA and will be competing in the youth program as well," he said.

"I've been fortunate to host and attend the World Angus Forum in the past. It's always a spectacular event with an unmatched passion and energy.

"It is invaluable to learn about other's challenges and successes. I've personally done business for decades in Australia and I'm long overdue for a visit."

Australia will host the Neogen World Angus Forum in Brisbane from May 6 to 8. ACM Agri is a media partner. See here.