What's ahead for the 2025 bull selling season according to livestock agents

Queensland studstock agents are hopeful a lift in commercial cattle sales will flow through to the price of bulls when the selling season kicks off next month.

Some of the first bull sales of 2025 will kick off in Queensland next month in Charters Towers and Rockhampton, but Elders stud stock agent Anthony Ball said it was a long way between now and August/September/October, when the selling season really started in Queensland.

"A lot can dictate prices (for bull sales)," he said.

"You'd hope if the upward trend of commercial sales increases, it would lift the bull price.

"We've seen the feeder price lift 40 cents over four bucks, we've seen Angus and Herefords in Victoria and NSW up on about $250 on last year, we've seen the export money for Brahman cattle as good as it's been for 12 months so I don't think there's going to be any one breed that's going to leave the rest for dead.

"I think if you look at all the different markets that we have in Queensland, if you look at our export market, if you look at our feeder market, you look at our Jap Ox market, you look at our grass-fed market, our EU market, they're all having lifts so, I guess, as to the personal preference of producers and the bulls they want, we should see it fairly solid across all breeds."

Mr Ball said he would like to think clearance rates would lift slightly.

"We're probably still dealing with the influx of mass production of bulls from '21, '22, '23...there were a lot of IVF programs taking place, (and) we saw a lot of new studs established and enter the market so that will be the interesting thing as the year goes on," he said.

"The increase of breeds and numbers of bulls in those breeds, it will be interesting to see whether - and again you're asking some pretty hard questions in January - if it continues to rain and the gaps continue to fill in...and people continue to stop liquidation and start a rebuild, potentially the markets align and they can absorb the extra bulls on the market.

"If we run into a dry period...if we head down a path of liquidation then maybe clearance rates (for stud bulls) stay the same or come back."

Mr Ball said one per cent of stud bulls were sold into a stud herd with the rest bought by commercial producers.

"So, it will be interesting to see where producers decide to go in their breeding programs...British Euro cattle have sold quite well in the last couple of years, but does that then mean we will now see a swing back to Bos Indicus cattle to see content increase in northern and central herds," he said.

"I don't know, it's the million dollar question."

Dane Pearce of Nutrien Ag Solutions said it depended on people's core herd of cows as to what breed of bull they were going to buy.

"You've seen a lot of investment in Angus/Brangus genetics over the past few years and a lot in the Euro breeds, so you will see those Euros have been very strong and especially those ones that are going up to central Queensland to put over a Bos Indicus type female," he said.

"People are just chasing a cross in their cattle so I think those breeds will go well."

Mr Pearce said while price records were made to be broken, he thought there would be similar prices at this year's sales as those in 2024 because the whole cattle market was fairly stable after massive hikes.

He said some sales would be up while others would be down, and a lot of that would be based on the quality of the cattle.

"When you've got good seasons, like a lot of people are experiencing now, you're going to see good quality stock put forward and they will definitely sell well," he said.

"You might see some little increases, but at the end of the day it's a fairly stable commercial market and it will reflect in the same sort of thing in the stud market."

Mr Pearce said clearance rates at a lot of last year's sales were 85 plus which was a very acceptable result, and reckoned if vendors aimed for an 85-90 per cent and above clearance rate this year they would have had a successful sale.

As to averages this year, he believes they will be similar to last year.

"I think if anything, while people last year may have been a little disappointed with the clearance (of their sales) when the averages were read out at the end of the sale, cattle averaged very well, and I think you will see similar trends to 2024 as far as averages go," he said.

Despite Brahmans copping a price penalty at saleyards, Mr Pearce doesn't believe the breed is on a downward slide.

He said some producers, who crossbreed, buy a certain breed for a couple of years and then decide when they have enough of a particular breed to go back to XYZ.

"That's cross-breeding and while there might be people buying a few more Euro bulls and different things, there's a lot of people in central and northern Queensland that need to maintain that core base in their herd and will continue to go back to Brahman or Droughtmaster or whatever they're using," he said.

Queensland Rural Charters Towers livestock agent Shaun Flanagan, who is the sale co-ordinator for Big Country, said it was hard to predict trends for the coming bull season.

"We've started the year with a good strong, solid season in much of north Queensland...we've already seen some very positive live export activity and also had some great news to come out of Indonesia," he said.

Earlier this week, Indonesia announced it planned to buy an extra two million head of beef and dairy cattle over the next five years for its Free Meal Program.

With the Big Country sale on February 3 and 4, the first bull sale of 2025, Mr Flanagan said every bit of positive news for the industry would translate to positive news for bull sellers.

He could not predict the clearance rate or if any records would be broken at this year's Big Country Sale, but he said it had an exceptional lineup of bulls.

"I believe the gap between the quality bulls and the lesser quality bulls will continue to widen (on price)," he said.

"Your good quality bulls will be harder to buy, people will pay for quality. As we were starting to see at the end of 2024, the lesser bulls, especially at sales, will be less desirable.

"People are inclined to be more selective. They will pay more, but they will only buy the bulls they want to buy. They won't accept a bull just because he's the last one left."

Ray White Rural Gracemere principal Gary Wendt, who is only involved in two stud bull sales a year, one being the Rocky Brangus Sale, also felt averages would be similar to last year, maybe a little bit stronger.

Mr Wendt said the record price of $150,000 for Earlwood Riki at last year's two-day Brangus sale was a hard record to step over and did not expect to see it broken this year.

"But I've been wrong plenty of times," he said, adding he was not shocked at last year's record because he had seen the top-priced bull and others by the same vendor before the auction, and they were "all cracker bulls".

And, like his peers, Mr Wendt sees clearance rates being similar to last year because producers were still in herd-building mode.

"But, once again, that depends on...the quality of the bulls," he said.

Mr Pearce noted that many producers were now in a better position, with widespread rain improving conditions and boosting confidence in the cattle market.

"For the heavy finished cattle and slaughter cattle sold last week, it was a very strong result," he said.

"The rise in grid prices reflects the strength of the market, driven by a combination of supply and demand, as well as more money in circulation with people looking to restock, including purchasing yearling steers."

- with Ben Harden