Mixed results in a very challenging sale season for WA's stud breeders

This year's ram selling season could best be described as mixed - good in parts and challenging in others.

Some breeds enjoyed improved results on last year, while others found it another tough season.

While sheep prices have shown improvement over the past six months and are stronger than this time last year, the confidence of producers in the sheep and wool industry is still low due to a number of other factors.

There has been the passing of Federal government legislation which will see sheep live exports by sea cease on May 1, 2028 and since then there has been very little information given to producers on the transition package and when it will kick in.

Then there have been the tough dry seasonal conditions across the State over the past 12 months.

Last year the spring cut off very quickly and this was then followed by the driest six months (December 2023 to May 2024) on record which saw dams dry up and producers struggle to buy additional feed as costs were high and supply was short.

On top of these factors, producers have also found it hard to offload stock to processors as they have been full and then finally there were the struggling sheep and wool markets.

From midway through last year to June this year, producers saw sheep prices back 50 to 60 per cent on the previous 12 months, while the wool market over the past year has shown no signs of improvement.

With all that has happened in the past 12-18 months, it's easy to understand why producers have looked at their sheep enterprises and made some tough decisions as to what they are doing going forward.

These decisions included everything from getting out of sheep altogether, or reducing the number of sheep they are running and cropping more land, to changing the composition of their flocks and what rams they are using.

The season average across all breeds this year finished at $1463, which is the lowest value in the past seven years, while the number of rams sold was the smallest number since 2000.

Compared to last year's average of $1490, this year's figure was back $27 and the number of rams sold was back 1145 head.

The decrease in prices and the number of rams sold this year follows on from last year's extremely tough season where both prices and numbers sold dropped significantly on the record breaking year of 2022.

It means compared to 2022 when 14,803 rams sold for an average of $1853, this year breeders sold 3478 (or 23pc) less rams, while the average was back $390 (or 21pc) and when these two figures are combined, it equates to this year's gross figure being back 40pc on two years ago.

No doubt the biggest influence on the outcome of ram sales again was producers' inability to sell stock earlier in the year and the extremely low returns they were seeing for lambs and mutton at the end of last year and early this year, compared to just 12 months earlier.

After seeing lambs and mutton regularly selling for more than $200 in 2021 and then in 2022 lambs making close to $150 and mutton at $90-$100, everything changed in late autumn last year and while prices have lifted in the past six months, they are still well back on 2022 levels.

An indication of just how much lamb prices have fallen in the past two years can be seen when you examine Meat & Livestock Australia's (MLA) lamb indicators.

In January 2022 the trade lamb indicator (18-22kg) carcase weight (CWT) was at 851 cents a kilogram CWT, the light lamb (12-18kg CWT) indicator was at 809c/kg CWT and the Merino lamb indicator was at 838c/kg CWT.

At the end of January this year the trade lamb indicator sat at 564.30c/kg CWT, the light lamb at 414.38c/kg CWT and the Merino lamb at 396.25c/kg CWT which meant they were down between 286-441c/kg or 34-53pc on 2022 levels.

The prices declined even more in the first six months of this year bottoming out in autumn, the trade lamb and Merino lamb indicators dropped to low points of 441.03c/kg CWT and 226.36c/kg CWT respectively in April while the light lamb indicator hit its lowest point of 279.56c/kg in the first week of June, before they started on an upward trajectory from early June.

When the ram selling season commenced at the end of August, the trade lamb indicator was at 667.94c/kg CWT, light lamb was 550.63c/kg CWT and Merino lamb was 549.86c/kg CWT.

This meant the indicators were up between 103-154c/kg compared to the beginning of the year and up between 226-323c/kg on their low points in the autumn.

During the selling season lamb prices came back slightly as new season lambs entered the market and increased supply.

At the end of last week the trade lamb indicator was 608.18c/kg CWT, the light lamb was 475.27c/kg CWT and the Merino lamb was 491.19c/kg CWT to be up 53pc, 45pc and 111pc respectively on the same time last year.

This time last year the indicators were at 397.84c/kg

CWT for trade lamb, 326.70c/kg CWT for light lamb and 232.69c/kg CWT for Merino lamb.

At the current levels producers are seeing the best heavy new season lambs make in the main between $130-$150 compared to $100-$120 last year.

Like lamb prices, producers have also seen the price for mutton fall away since January 2022.

In 2022 the MLA mutton indicator (18-24kg CWT) peaked on January 28 at 595c/kg CWT and since then it has trended downwards.

At the end of January this year the mutton indicator was at 83.40c/kg CWT, which was down 66pc compared to the end of January 2023 when it was at 247.89c/kg CWT.

It fell even further from there and from the beginning of February to the beginning of May it ranged between 57.77-100.77c/kg CWT before it started to show some signs of improvement and move upwards.

The indicator peaked at 405.89c/kg CWT on August 8 and since then it has dropped away as the spring flush of mutton has hit the market, but even with this drop the market is higher than this time last year.

At the end of last week the mutton indicator was at 201.95c/kg CWT, up 182pc on 12 months ago when it was at 71.71c/kg CWT.

At this current level producers are seeing the best heavy mutton make $60-$75 this year compared to $20-$35 last year.

As with trade sheep prices, prices at this year's spring Merino ewe sales also improved on last year's levels but the rise was offset against much smaller yardings.

Ewe sale prices were up 30-40pc with sales averaging between $85-$100 compared to $50-$60 last year.

While prices did increase this year, the averages were still well back on 2022 levels when sales averaged between $150-$200.

The top price for ewes in Merino ewe sales this year was $146 at the Nutrien Livestock Wickepin and Corrigin sale compared to $113 last year and $270 in 2022.

But it wasn't only Merino ewe prices that rose this year after taking a dip in 2023 - the price for maternal shedding ewes was also up.

This year in the Nutrien Livestock Maternal ewe sale on AuctionsPlus in November, shedding ewes and ewe lambs averaged $173 up from the $155 average achieved last year.

While sheep prices have shown some improvement over the past six months, the wool market hasn't provided producers with anything to get excited about, with prices stagnating and showing no sustained upward movement over the past 12 months.

Last week, the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) for the 2024/25 season was averaging 1114c/kg clean and sitting at 1132c/kg clean, while the Western Market Indicator (WMI) was averaging 1253c/kg clean for the season and sitting at 1271c/kg.

In comparison the EMI averaged 1157c/kg for the 2023/24 season and 1301c/kg for the 2022/23 season, while the WMI averaged 1291c/kg and 1439c/kg for the past two seasons.

In the past 12 months producers have seen the WMI range between 1222c/kg clean to a peak of 1343c/kg clean on December 13 last year.

When ram sales kicked off in earnest in the last week of August (week beginning Monday, August 26), the market was back on this peak with the EMI at 1086c/kg clean and the WMI at 1223c/kg clean.

In comparison, in the same week last year the EMI was 1131c/kg clean and the WMI 1270c/kg, while in 2022 the EMI was 1330c/kg and the WMI was 1441c/kg.

During the ram selling season the WMI ranged between 1222-1281c/kg, while last year the range was between 1251-1299c/kg and in 2022 it was between 1363-1469c/kg.

When wool sales finished last week, the WMI was at 1271c/kg clean, back 23c/kg on last year.

At last week's level a 185kg bale of 18 micron, 68pc yield wool with good length (80-90mm) and strength (32N/kt)

was worth $1863, while a 19 micron bale was worth $1756 and 21 micron $1637, meaning the values are down between 4-7pc on last year's values of $1961, $1885 and $1713.

There is no question the lack of positive movement in the wool market over the past 12 months had an impact on sale results this year, especially Merino sales as producers reevaluated their programs and changed their buying behaviours.

So with a number of factors playing on producers' minds and denting their confidence in the sheep and wool industry, they were again not short of things to consider when attending sales.

This year's ram selling season saw 13,436 Merino, British, Australasian, South African and shedding breed rams offered at sales and 11,325 sold for a clearance rate of 84pc, a gross of $16,571,330, a $1463 average and to a top of $17,000.

In comparison, last year 14,735 rams were offered and 12,470 sold under the hammer for a gross of $18,584,300, at an average of $1490 and a 85pc clearance.

This meant across the board 1296 less rams were offered and 1145 less were sold, meaning both numbers were down 9pc on last year while the gross was back $2,012,970 or 11pc and clearance was down 1pc.

The overall season average of $1463 was down $27 or 2pc on last year.

All up this year there were 53 sales out of the 121 sales held that registered an increase in average, which show what a mixed bag the season was for stud breeders.

Compared to 2000 when Farm Weekly started recording sale results for all breeds, the average was up $766 on that year's average of $697, while compared to 10 years ago (2015) it was up $270 on that average of $1193.

In terms of gross revenue, this year ranks as the 12th largest since 2000 while it was the smallest since 2015.

The best season in terms of average price and gross was only two years ago in 2022.

In 2022, the average was $1853 and the gross was more than $27.435 million when breeders cleared 14,803 rams from 15,915 offered.

The $17,000 season top price was paid for an UltraWhite ram at the Bradford family's Hillcroft Farms on-property ram sale at Popanyinning in October.

The second top price for the season was $16,000 for a White Suffolk ram sold by Brenton and Harriet Addis, Yonga Downs stud, Broomehill, at the Perth Royal Show All Breeds Ram and Ewe Sale, while the third top price was $15,000 achieved by the Lewis family, Lewisdale stud, Wickepin, at its on-property sale for a full wool, four-tooth Poll Merino ram.

As well as topping the top price list, the shedding breeds also came out on top in the average stakes - achieving an average of $2505, which was up $135 on last year.

The White Dorpers were the best performers of these breeds with an average of $3776 for 50 rams offered and sold.

Also in these breeds the Kojaks averaged $2833, while the UltraWhite was the next best with an average of $2810.

The British and Australasian breeds and South African breeds like the shedding breeds saw their overall averages also improve.

The British and Australasian breed's sales averaged $1110 to be up $40 on last year and here the Texels and Prolifics with averages of $1635 and $1613 respectively were the top performers, while the South African breeds sales averaged $1253, which was up $42 on last year and here it was the Dohne breed leading the way with an average of $1348.

Merino sales finished with an average of $1548, to be back $83 on last year.

The decrease in the number of rams offered and sold this year was again in the main due to the significant decrease in the number of Merino rams offered and sold throughout the season.

This year Merino breeders offered 911 less rams and sold 897 less.

Despite the Merino sales seeing a significant reduction again in the number of rams offered and sold the breed still held more than 50pc of the market share.

In terms of market share, Merinos held 53pc of the market this year for rams sold, which was back 2pc on last year, while the British and Australasian breed market share for rams sold was 33.5pc an increase of 3.5pc on last year.

When the British and Australasian breeds market share is broken down for rams sold, White Suffolks sit at 20pc making it the next biggest breed sold behind Merinos while Poll Dorset's market share was 8pc.

The Dohne and Prime SAMM breeds recorded a market share of 3.5pc and 2pc respectively on the number of rams sold.

The market share for the shedding breeds on rams sold finished at 8pc, which was the same as last year.

The UltraWhite breed had the biggest share of these breeds sitting at 3pc overall of rams sold.

When you look at the market share for the breeds on the gross figures Merinos recorded a figure of 56.5pc, which was down 4.5pc on 2023, British and Australasian breeds commanded 25.5pc, up 3.5pc on 2023 (White Suffolk 16pc and Poll Dorset 6pc), Dohne 3pc, Prime SAMMs 1pc with the shedding breeds at 14pc (UltraWhite 6pc).

The Merino and White Suffolk breeds were the only two to surpass the $1 million gross figure.

Merinos again clearly topped the gross figures for the season with sales grossing more than $9.301m, while the White Suffolk sales gross was more than $2.588.

The next two biggest gross figures were Poll Dorset at $985,750 and UltraWhite at $941,200.