Mega 2021 Melbourne Cup Form Guide

Photo credit: Sharon Chapman from Fast Track Photography

Favourite horses, which will win?

It’s very much a case of ‘Back To The Future’ with this year’s Melbourne Cup adopting an appearance local racing enthusiasts were very familiar with a couple of decades ago before the event went truly international. Due to a number of factors this year, but primarily Covid and stringent veterinary procedures put in place for the 2021 renewal, Australia’s favourite horse race only has a couple of overseas trained runners in the line-up compared to close on a dozen this time 12 months ago.
 

As a direct consequence, racegoers will be much more familiar with many of the names of the participants. If not necessarily the individual horses, then at least the established horsefolk who have prepared them for Tuesday’s feature. These again include the likes of Waterhouse, Freedman, Hayes, Waller, Moody etc etc —  all household names in racing circles in every region of the country.
 

Unfortunately, what comes with the lack of participation of high-calibre overseas trained runners is a 2021 field which is lacking in quality and depth compared to more recent years, a point illustrated by the fact that at least a third of the runners haven’t won a race for over a year and are very unlikely to address that matter this Tuesday!
 

So which horse is most likely to salute?
 

With this year’s Cup having a profile we identified with 10 or 20 years ago, hot favourite Incentivise is the obvious choice. The Queenslander has taken Melbourne spring racing by storm with his unbeaten sequence of wins including the Caulfield Cup. To some extent the gelding is a throwback to a celebrated past winner in the form of Might And Power. Might And Power landed the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double in 1997 when everyone in the sport was still coming to terms with his true level of ability, and it is more than likely to be a similar case with Incentivise on Tuesday.
 

In saying that, the outstanding British stayer Spanish Mission (USA) will almost certainly test his mettle. The connections of this high-class international galloper have had to forego a host of very suitable alternatives for him back home in Britain just to take his place in the field at Flemington on Tuesday and he is much too good an animal to be easily dismissed. His performance in this year’s Ascot Gold Cup was outstanding, and his only subsequent effort behind world champion stayer Stradivarius was equally as good. Therefore, it would be right to assume that he’s made the long haul Down Under for very good reason.
 

Outside of Incentivise and Spanish Mission (USA), there really does not appear to be too many genuine winning hopes. The best is possibly Floating Artist (GB), an untapped talent who comes into the race with a winning weight after having appeared a certainty beaten in the Moonee Valley Cup at his latest outing. If you throw in the fact that he’s prepared by the leading co-trainers of stayers in the country in the form of Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, plus that he’s bred to run every inch of the two-mile journey, then there’s a sound case to suggest that he’ll be there or thereabouts.
 

Sir Lucan (Ire) is another that could possibly cause a boil-over. Purchased by Gai Waterhouse and her team specifically for the Cup in the very same manner as 2013 winner Fiorente, Sir Lucan (Ire) also boasts a profile very similar to that of 2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter. Furthermore, three-time Cup winner Glen Boss will be in the saddle. All things considered, it represents a pretty solid argument for his inclusion in calculations.
 

Outside of the aforementioned, last year’s winner Twilight Payment (Ire) also deserves due respect with a tried and tested record; Grand Promenade (Ire) makes great appeal as a live first-four chance following six months of incredibly consistent efforts; and, Tralee Rose (NZ) has a sense of timing (as the form experts say) and can possibly deliver a ‘PB’ for this stage of her blossoming career — if you pardon the pun!